The world’s leading banks, consultancies, and think tanks have marginally raised Kenya’s growth prospects, citing increased private sector expenditure in an economy where inflationary pressures remain elevated.

A consensus forecast from 14 global firms shows the gross domestic product (GDP) — a measure of all economic activities by the government, companies, and individuals — will likely grow at 5.2 percent in 2024.

This is a paltry 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, signalling slowing inflation pressures.

The growth is, nonetheless, projected to largely remain flat from last year’s, estimated at 5.1 percent.

“GDP growth in 2024 is anticipated to remain at the levels expected in 2023, primarily propelled by a stronger expansion in private spending. Conversely, growth in both investment and government spending is expected to decelerate,” analysts at Barcelona-based FocusEconomics, the macroeconomic research firm that compiled growth outlooks, wrote in the February consensus forecast report.

“Downside risks include renewed drought conditions, unexpectedly high oil prices, and a [maturing Eurobond] debt default.”

The GDP measure largely focuses on the total value of goods and services produced, the value of goods and services bought, and income generated from mainly profit and salaries.

The measure does not, however, capture the value of unpaid work and does not also show how income generated is split amongst the population.