Across Kenya, many young parents dream of holding two or three of their own children one day.

But they are being pushed by the harsh realities of daily life to drop such plans. Rent is high, food is expensive, and jobs are uncertain.

A new UN report reveals that it is not a lack of desire stopping people from starting or expanding families, it is the cost of living.

The UNFPA’s 2025 State of World Population report,  launched in Nairobi on Tuesday, says “this inability of individuals to realise their desired fertility goals is the real fertility crisis” around the world.

 In other words, declining birth rates in many countries are not caused by people not wanting children, but by obstacles that keep them from having the families they dream of.

Kenya’s population has been growing rapidly at 2 per cent every year, with the government making efforts to slow down the growth.

However, the UNFPA report says it is other coercive factors making people reduce family size, not their own freewill.

“Reproductive agency requires not just the ability to say yes or no, not just the right to be free of coercion; it requires a full range of conditions that enable people to exercise true choice,” says the report, "The Real Fertility Crisis: The Pursuit of Reproductive Agency in a Changing World".

The UNFPA report is based on surveys of adults in 14 countries. It notes that nearly one in four people “had experienced a time when they desired a child but felt unable to fulfill the desire at the preferred time”.

 In those cases, more than 40 per cent eventually had to give up their hope of having a child. Even more alarmingly, 13 per cent of respondents had both an unplanned pregnancy and unwanted infertility – meaning they had a baby they did not intend and still could not have as many children as they wanted.

In the words of the report, these figures show that “systems and environments are failing to support individuals’ reproductive decision-making”.

“Vast numbers of people are unable to create the families they want,” said Dr Natalia Kanem, executive director of UNFPA, who is currently visiting Nairobi. “The issue is lack of choice, not desire, with major consequences for individuals and societies. That is the real fertility crisis, and the answer lies in responding to what people say they need: paid family leave, affordable fertility care, and supportive partners.”

The report identifies common barriers that derail family plans. For example, money is a huge factor: the high cost of housing, schooling, childcare and daily life makes raising children seem out of reach for many young people today. Even a decent job can be hard to find or secure long term.

 Climate worries, war and uncertainty also weigh heavily on people’s minds. As one young woman in the report notes, fears about the future – from climate change to conflict – lead many couples to say they must have fewer children than they would otherwise prefer. In short, factors like economic precarity, gender inequality, lack of community support and poor health services all make it harder to start or grow a family.

The UNFPA report says: barriers to avoiding an unintended pregnancy and barriers to starting a family are often the same. For example, when clinics lack staff or services, or when childcare costs are high, men and women alike find it hard to realise their family goals.

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In Kenya and elsewhere in Africa, similar fears are rising. For example, many worry about finding work and housing. UNFPA finds that even in African countries with historically higher birth rates, a significant share of women and men now expect fewer children than they desire.

Kenya’s population, estimated at around 56 million in 2024, is continuing to grow steadily at nearly two per cent per year, adding roughly a million people annually. Projections suggest this will reach approximately 57.8 million by 2030, and may climb to nearly 84 million by 2050, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Meanwhile, the total fertility rate, while gradually declining, remains around 3.2 children per woman, KNBS says.

However, Nairobi's cost of living remains relatively high compared to many other African cities, including Johannesburg and Lagos.