Ever since it became clear that President Uhuru Kenyatta was not going back on his endorsement of Raila Odinga as his preferred presidential candidate in this year’s August 9 polls, Raila’s rivals have been quick to label him a state project.

Deputy President William Ruto, the presumed Kenya Kwanza Alliance presidential candidate, has gone ahead to describe Raila as a puppet through whom Uhuru and his allies are seeking to extend their rule through the back door.

Ruto and his brigade have taken the view that just like Kenyans rejected a ‘state project’ (that was Uhuru) in 2002, they will do so in 2022.On the other hand Raila and his Azimio strategists are keen to run away from the project tag seeing it as a potential hangman’s knot on their campaign.

But should this be the case? To address this, we should first seek to understand contexts where a ‘state project’ label could prove fatal to a campaign as it happened for Uhuru 20 years ago.

The first ideal condition for a ‘state project’ tag to stick and cripple a campaign is when there is a near universal disapproval of the outgoing leader and their administration.

There can be no doubt that president Daniel arap Moi’s approval ratings were at near basement levels in the sunset years of his 24-year rule. The groundswell of change had been building for years, nay, decades.

Kenyans chanted “yote yawezekana bila Moi” (all is possible without Moi) because they couldn’t stand the Kanu rule anymore. A candidate seen as extension of such an unpopular administration was losing the election even before the ballot was cast.

Which takes us to the next logical question: Is Uhuru’s approval rating as low or as bad as that of Moi in 2002? Is there a near universal disapproval of the Uhuru administration’s performance? Highly unlikely; worst case scenario is that the country is split 50/50 on his performance.

In that could case, one would argue that Uhuru’s support for candidate Raila shouldn’t bring a bad odour to the Azimio campaign.

Secondly, for a state project tag to have the desired impact the candidate labeled as such must fit the narrative. Boy, wasn’t it a snug fit on Uhuru in 2002! He was a rookie, pro establishment politician whose only claim to national name recognition was that he was a progeny of the founding president, the late Jomo Kenyatta.

There was never a doubt that the Uhuru candidature at the time was seen as a case of those of political noble birth seeking to perpetuate their rule. The only voters who could trust Uhuru with the presidency at the time were those who trusted Moi’s judgment about the future direction of the country. They were very few, as it turned out.

Thirdly, a candidate competing against the one branded a ‘state project’ must on their own have a solid anti-establishment, nay change, track record. In 2002, Kibaki was as a formidable anti-status quo candidate as any that could have been on the ticket. Kibaki had been on the political trenches for over a decade fighting for change and reforms.

In contrast, Ruto’s only claim to being an anti status quo candidate is his fallout with his boss, Uhuru, which is the foundation of the Hustler campaign. Otherwise, there is no better student and adherent of Nyayosim than Ruto in Kenya today. A leopard never changes its spots.

On the flipside, Raila as a veteran of four presidential campaigns, mostly on a change ticket is the quintessential anti-establishment candidate. Unlike Uhuru in 2002 (who campaigned for less than four months for the presidency), Raila has demonstrated that he has a solid national political constituency behind him.

In the last three presidential races, he has officially garnered over 40 per cent of the total votes cast. His supporters think he got more and his victory was stolen.

So, if Raila is to be a state project, it could be because the state needs him, not the other way round. Any mention of the state tag against him should automatically deflect to his strengths, not perceived weaknesses.

Azimio campaigners should remind their rivals at every opportunity that any perceived state or Uhuru support is just what it is, the icing on the cake (who doesn’t want that?). The cake was already baked.