Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga faces stiff competition for the African Union Commission top job as diplomatic intrigues begin more than four months before the vote. 

On Friday, just two days after Raila secured the backing of East Africa Community, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) resolved to back Djibouti's Mahmoud Ali Youssef.

The resolution was reportedly made by OIC Foreign ministers in Cameroon.

Djibouti’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dya-Eddine Bamakhrama posted on X that the ministers adopted the resolution in its session of August 29 to August 30.

At least 27 members of the OIC are from Africa, a situation some pundits hold wILL give Raila a run for his money.

However, the backing for Djibouti by these Islamic countries remains to be seen.

Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Morocco who are all member of OIC have fronted candidates for deputy chairperson.

This means they would want to team up with other regions, say East Africa to ensure their candidates sail through.

Some members of the OIC such as Uganda, Nigeria, Guinea Bissau are also believed to be backing Raila.

Other countries such as Niger, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Gabon and Mali are suspended from AU.

Besides the AUC chairmanship and deputy, there are three other continental jobs for grabs.

These are African Development Bank President, Commonwealth secretary general and World Health Organization chief.

Other than Djibouti, Raila will also face off with Anil Gayan of Mauritius, and Richard Randriamandrato of Magascar.

Ahmed Hashi, a governance and policy expert, said looking at how countries behave at the ballot, “Raila is going to lose the election in Addis Ababa.”

“I would be shocked if he gets even a slim majority. Djibouti candidate will win with a landslide,” he said.

For Hashi, the vote will be determined by how the French, English and Portuguese speaking nations will act.

“AU is divided based on these fundamental tectonic plates and the biggest influence is the French,” he said.

According to Hashi, this is why Amina Mohamed lost in 2017.

It is also widely believed that the French speaking countries have historically backed one of their own and in this case, Djibouti.

“The same scenario is going to take place at the AU. The French, Sahel areas, Central Africa are going to stand up to the candidature of Odinga and say no, ” Hashi predicted.

Lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi reinforced this assertion saying “it will be a great mistake to underestimate the Djibouti candidate.”

Moronge Obonyo, an expert in international relations laws, says Francophone member states appear to do better diplomacy.

“With Djibouti in the race, a united Francophone vote will be a threat. Secondly, how the Southern Africa region will vote may haunt Raila,” he said.

“Southern Africa (largely, Anglophone) abstained in the last contest when Amina was up against Faki, dealing Amina a blow.” 

Of the five past AUC chairs, only South Africa's Nkosazana Zuma was from Anglophone Africa.

The rest (Amara Easy, Alpha Konare, Jean Ping and Mahamat Faki) were Francophone.

“With a candidate from Madagascar, an SADC member, contesting as part of the Eastern Africa bloc, the race may be tricky,” Moronge said.

For the pundit, the last minute change of heart by EAC member states that was witnessed in 2017 may replay.

North and Arab Muslim nations are also viewed as would act based on how Kenya has treated the Morocco, Saharawi and Algeria question.

Already, Kenya has officially initiated steps to establish formal diplomatic ties with Morocco, a move tied to the upcoming vote.

Wilfred Muliro, foreign policy expert, says some of the hurdles and questions have been answered.

Among them were concerns about whether Raila was going to the race alone or as an EAC candidate.

Raila’s age, 79, was also cited but pundits say he is the second high ranking individual to seek the seat after Mali’s Oumar Konare.

“Most of the voters here are his peers. He is an engineer and has been AU Infrastructure envoy. Most leaders would be interested with how he’d deal with infrastructure, which is Africa is top priority,” Muliro said. 

For other pundits, the trade-ins in five key continental roles which have been up for grabs in Africa will be a factor.

Apart from AUC chair and deputy, posts such as WHO Africa chief, AfDB president and Commonwealth chief have elicited high-level negotiations.

Tanzania got WHO Africa chief and the two leading candidates for AfDB president come from Zambia (SADC) and Cameroon (Central Africa).

More candidates could emerge ahead of the September deadline, ostensibly from Chad, Mauritania and Egypt.

The latter being in the race for AUC deputy, it is argued its stakes sit better with Kenya, same with France, in its bid for the AfDB post.

Ecowas members are said to be keen on bagging the Commonwealth chief post hence could trade with the EAC for support.

Muliro says Raila has an upper hand, having been vouching for pan-Africanism and keeping to AU’s position on regional matters.

“The Arab question will also sort itself as they are only competing for the deputy chairperson seat,” he said.

He said there will be cases of candidates and blocs agreeing to step down “in favour of Odinga and the North will sort itself out.”

For some pundits, the assurances by Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu and Salva Kiir of South Sudan are not enough.

Professor Macharia Munene, an International Relations don, cited the absence of Felix Tshishekedi and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame at the campaign launch.

He said the show of no commitment by Burundi, Somalia and Ethiopia will hurt Raila’s campaign as the EAC candidate.

“Their absence is an indication that there may be some division in as much as Kiir spoke as the EAC chairperson,” Munene said.

“It is notable that Kenya and Ethiopia are not in good terms and Somalia is yet to fully endorse the Raila bid."

For Munene, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo’s influence in Africa is also waning hence may not be a dependable campaigner.

“For me, it is a 50:50 chance and negatively for Raila. The vote could end up as 60:40,” he said.

To beat the hurdle, Edward Kakumu, an International Relations expert, says Kenya must showcase excellence in diplomatic skills and etiquette.

“Kenya can do this by endearing its candidate to countries with interested candidates to sway them into allies and lobby other regional blocs,” Kakumu said.

He said Raila must clear his schedule of other activities for the next six months and rhythmically embody government’s efforts.

“This might include shuttling around the continent to build trust and connections with delegations of potential voters,” Kakumu said.

He said the former MP has to “make intriguing presentations that appeal to specific audiences without making regional messes.”

Kenya's trade policy and effect of trade disputes, especially with its neighbours, is also viewed as would be a determinant factor in the race as well.