Kenya's agricultural sector has received a significant boost as China commits to expanding its market for Kenyan produce, despite recent struggles in the export of avocados and tea.

The commitment, confirmed by a statement from President William Ruto on X social media, follows a crucial meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing.

Why it matters: This new assurance comes at a time when Kenya's agricultural exports to China are overshadowed by mineral exports. The potential for growth in Kenya's trade balance with China—the world's second-largest economy—offers a promising horizon for Kenyan farmers and exporters.

During their meeting, President Xi Jinping assured President Ruto that China's vast population of over 1.4 billion people remains open to Kenyan agricultural produce.

This is a major development, considering that Kenya’s avocado exports to China have plummeted by 80 per cent this year. The drop is attributed to Kenyan exporters focusing on more lucrative markets in Europe and North America.

Data from Chinese customs highlights a drastic reduction in avocado imports from Kenya. In the first seven months of this year, China imported only 742,934 kilogrammes of Kenyan avocados, compared to 3,674,463 kilogrammes during the same period last year. Consequently, the earnings from these exports have fallen sharply from $6,830,140 (Ksh881.1 million in the current exchange rates) to $1,232,149 (about Ksh158.64 million in the current exchange rates).

Despite the market access granted to Kenya, the decline in avocado exports point to a challenge for Kenyan farmers who have heavily relied on the European Union and are now looking towards China's massive consumer base to increase sales. 

Kenya began exporting avocados to China in August 2022, a strategic move aimed at tapping into the country's extensive market. Initially, the exports were limited to frozen fruits, a restriction that has since been lifted.

The broader landscape of Kenya's agricultural exports to China reveals a diverse range of products. According to data from United Nations COMTRADE, ores, slag, and ash remain Kenya's top agricultural export to China, valued at $110.89 million (Ksh14.3 billion) in 2023.

Other significant exports include edible fruits, nuts, citrus peel, and melons, valued at $25.69 million; fish and crustaceans at $18 million (Ksh2.3 billion); coffee, tea, and spices at $9.49 million about Ksh1.22 billion; and various textile and leather products.

In 2022, Kenya’s total exports to China reached $239 million about Ksh30.77 billion. Major products included Titanium Ore, valued at $103 million about Ksh13.26 billion, and Niobium, Tantalum, Vanadium, and Zirconium Ore at $41.5 million about Ksh5.34 billion.

The continued focus on mineral exports highlights the existing imbalance in trade but also points to areas where growth is possible.

President Ruto’s announcement also included plans for further discussions on regional infrastructure projects, such as the expansion of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and the Rironi-Mau Summit-Malaba dual carriageway.

These projects are expected to enhance trade logistics and support Kenya's broader economic development.