The reported plans of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to visit Russia this month have raised concerns among the United States and its allies. US officials claim that he and President Vladimir Putin are set to discuss the possibility of North Korea supplying weapons to support Russia's war in Ukraine.

On the surface, an arms deal between North Korea and Russia appears to be a logical transaction. Moscow urgently needs weapons, particularly ammunition and artillery shells, for its conflict in Ukraine, and North Korea possesses a surplus of both.

Conversely, North Korea, which has faced sanctions and isolation, is in dire need of financial resources and food due to years of border closures and failed negotiations with the United States in 2019.

Beneath the surface, such a deal could deepen collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow. The US has previously warned of the potential for an arms agreement between these two nations, but a meeting between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin elevates these concerns to a new level.

While the immediate focus for the US is to prevent North Korean weapons from reaching the front lines in Ukraine, South Korea is concerned about what North Korea might gain in return for selling arms to Russia.

With Russia facing a dire situation, Kim Jong Un may demand substantial concessions. These could include increased military support from Russia, the suggestion of joint naval drills with Russia and China, or even the possibility of acquiring advanced weapons technology or knowledge from Russia to advance North Korea's nuclear program.

However, some experts in Seoul believe that Russia may be cautious about cooperating on such a high level, as it could pose a strategic risk to Russia itself.

Yang Uk, a research fellow at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, suggests that even if Russia refrains from selling weapons to North Korea, it could still support North Korea's nuclear program by providing essential resources like oil and food, thereby boosting North Korea's economic capacity and, indirectly, its weapons system.

As sanctions have increased, North Korea has increasingly relied on China for support, including turning a blind eye to sanctions violations and providing food aid. However, Pyongyang has been wary of depending too heavily on China alone, and with Russia seeking allies, Kim Jong Un may see an opportunity to diversify his support network and negotiate better terms with Russia, given its desperation.

The question remains whether the meeting will proceed, given Kim Jong Un's reluctance to leave North Korea and his concerns about security. The US may hope that by making the meeting public, it could dissuade Kim Jong Un from going ahead with it and potentially thwarting the arms deal.

Dr. Bernard Loo of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore suggests that canceling the meeting might be challenging, particularly given reports of planned military exercises involving North Korea, Russia, and China.

Part of the US strategy since Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been to release intelligence to prevent such deals from taking place. However, both North Korea and Russia have denied any intention of engaging in arms trade, suggesting that they would prefer to keep the deal private.