Why Raila Odinga could be headed for Prime Minister position in new deal with Ruto

Published By The Statesman For The Statesman Digital
10 hours ago

ODM leader Raila Odinga is reported to be pushing for a deal similar to the one he signed with President Daniel Moi in 1997.

But President William Ruto is said to be only keen on something akin to the 2008 National Accord that Raila signed with President Mwai Kibaki.

Whichever way it goes, it appears a foregone conclusion that the deal will see Raila getting a big slice of the Kenya Kwanza administration in the coming days.

"Raila is insisting on ODM retaining its identity through a cooperation but President Ruto wants to see something more concrete signed by the two sides so that they continue working together in future,” said a source.

Other sources also indicated that President Ruto is ready to create a non-executive office of prime minister for Raila through an Act of Parliament and use the 2008 grand coalition model.

Although such a deal will face constitutional challenges because the prime minister position is not entrenched in the Constitution, it is understood that the implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) report could see the seat created.

From the time Gen Z protests rocked the country and almost made it ungovernable last year, Ruto has turned to Raila for support.

And as a matter of agency now, the Nadco report compiled last year through talks between Kenya Kwanza and Azimio may be dashed through parliament.

The report proposes, among others, the creation of the prime minister’s office. Should the report sail through, Raila will not go through a vetting process because he will not be a CS.

The draft of the new structure, if implemented, will not affect the office Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who will continue operating from his Railways headquarters offices, while Deputy President Kithure Kindiki will shift from Harambee House Annex to his Karen offices.

“Raila’s security has already been beefed up because President Ruto is expected to create the office of a non-executive Prime Minister for him at Harambee House Annex,” said a source after Raila left Kisumu for Nairobi on Saturday evening.

Raila is also expected to get more Cabinet and Principle secretaries, parliamentary committee positions, ambassadorial postings and other top appointments.

He has reportedly been offered 12 PS seats, but he is asking for 16.

According to sources, Ruto may create the Ministry for Devolution and also replace Justin Muturi with ODM nominees.

All is not well in ODM, however, with a group of leaders that include Siaya Senator James Orengo and Secretary General Edwin Sifuna opposing such a deal.The party will today hold what is expected to be a stormy meeting in Nairobi.

Political analyst Martin Andati says Raila, in such an arrangement, would be more like a co-principal because his roles would be designed by Parliament unlike Mudavadi’s office whose functions were taken over by Head of Public Service Felix Koskei.

Cabinet shake-up

“Mudavadi’s role is now mainly in Foreign Affairs. The roles of supervision of Cabinet, the overseeing state corporations and other functions were given to Koskei. Mudavadi is serving as a Cabinet Secretary with a slightly higher salary than the rest,” says Andati.

Koskei recently released a circular directing all CEOs and board members of state parastatals with a remaining contract of less than six months to exit office. Analysts now think that may have been to create room for Raila’s appointees.

Following the new developments, a major government shake-up is expected anytime. The source said only a few CSs, including those allied to retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, may remain in government.

President Ruto appeared to have set the stage for the expected changes at the burial of Baringo Senator William Cheptumo on Saturday, saying Kenya Kwanza has similar agenda with Raila’s Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition.

The office of Prime Cabinet Secretary attracted criticism, with some lawyers saying it was unconstitutional. The same could happen with the Raila office.

“It can be challenged because although the President can create a ministry, the structure of the Executive remains offices of the President, Deputy President, Attorney General and not less than 14 or not more than 22 Cabinet Secretaries,” says political analyst Gitile Naituli.

He further argues that the 2008 National Accord that was midwifed by the late United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan died with the old constitution.

Since his return from Dubai where he took a break after the grueling AUC chairmanship campaign, Raila has been accorded VIP status at government functions and public gatherings he has attended with Ruto.

His elevated status was clear at the Coast last week, where he was called to address meetings after Kindiki and before the President.

“You could also see MPs struggling to heap praises on him while also calling him Prime Minister. That means he will be more powerful than Kindiki and more-or-less a co-principal,” says Andati.

Speaker Moses Wetangula and Senate Speaker Amason Kingi are among those who have acknowledged Raila’s new position.

Mudavadi is also rooting for Raila’s inclusion in the so-called broad-based government “Debate that is alive now is whether Kenyans feel that the Executive is too narrow and if they should introduce and formalise the whole aspect of the office of a Prime Minister,” said Mudavadi in a recent TV interview.

The Nadco report also proposes the office of Leader of the Official Opposition. It is, however, not clear if that will also be considered.

But Prof Naituli thinks the country is focusing on wrong priorities of sharing power instead of service delivery and economy.

“Raila is too big for the office they are creating for him. He needs to be endorsed by the people and not to be given such positions,” he says.

To him, decisions are still being made along tribal lines when the country has long moved out of the Kikuyu and Raila phobia syndromes.

More expenditure

The Prime Minister office will also come with financial implications to a government that is already burdened with heavy expenditure. In July last year, President Ruto announced a Sh177 billion spending cut but creating more offices will defeat that goal.

In 2024, the the Presidency was allocated Sh20 billion but that figure will now have to be significantly revised.

Meanwhile, Raila has asked the government to compensate the families of those who were killed during protests in 2023 and 2024.

Speaking after a meeting with party leaders in Mombasa, Raila condemned the killing or abduction of those with dissenting voices.

He also decried the economic hardships Kenyans were suffering, and called for interventions.

Raila also asked the government to resolve the higher education funding dispute.